July 2023 San Mateo County Market Update

Rumana Jabeen • July 3, 2023

In this market update, we are sharing a comparison with Q2 2023 and Q1 2023 to show changes in the market over this year. Read below to see the data and our analysis of what’s happened so far in the 2023 Baya Area Real Estate Market.

Median Price vs Appreciation 2023

There are many in the media and even economists who confuse median home price with appreciation. Median price measures the middle-priced homes that were sold, while appreciation measures actual gains or decreases in the value of homes.

The median home price can be influenced heavily by the mix of sales – Let’s look at an example. Let’s say in 2022 there were 5 homes that sold, $200k, $250k, $300k, $350k, and $400k. The median sale price would be the middle number or 300k. In 2022, we saw a 6% appreciation, which means all of those homes increased in value to the following in 2023: $212k, $265k, $318k, $371K, and $424k, respectively.

However, in our example, let’s say that in 2023, only the first three homes sold, or the $212k, $265k, and $318k priced homes. This is a real-world example driven by higher rates, lack of inventory, and other factors that saw more homes on the lower end sold vs homes on the higher end sold.

As a result of this, the median price is now $265k, and when compared to 2022, the median price is down 13%. However, all the homes are higher in price end appreciated by 6%. This is an example to show you how median price can be misleading and not measure true appreciation.

The market dynamics are such that buyer’s affordability has decreased, and demand for homes on the lower-priced end of the market has increased. We have seen over the last several months the median sales price of condos and townhomes have increased, driven in part by demand for homes on the lower-priced end of the market.

Mid-Year Review: Q2 2023 vs Q1 2023

As we reach the middle of the year, now is a good time to look back over the first half of the year. Below we are sharing some key data points as well as providing an explanation of what this means for our local San Mateo County real estate market. This data is focused on single-family home sales in San Mateo County for the period of January 2023 – June 2023.

A graph showing the number of listings in each month

Number of New Listings
We saw the number of new listings coming to market steadily trending upwards from January through June. May saw slightly higher new listings coming to market than June. Typical seasonality for our market peaks in April or May, and while this year followed that trend we did continue to see more new listings than expected coming to market in June as well.

Comparing the two quarters, in Quarter 1 (January – March) we saw 863 new listings come to market compared with Quarter 2 (April – June) we saw 1,329 new listings, considerably more inventory, come to market.

A graph showing the month of inventory for a single family home

Comparing the Number of Sales with Months of Inventory
Though few new homes entered the market in January 2023, there was inventory remaining on the market from 2022. As you might expect, this increased our months of inventory – an important marker that showed the balance of the market. While this varies by market, in San Mateo County, more than 4 months of inventory begins to edge into a “buyers” market. In January 2023, we saw 2.3 months of inventory, which is a typical amount of inventory for January in our market.

Starting in February we began to see sales pick up, dipping slightly in April. According to the California Association of REALTORS, “a surge in mortgage interest rates and a shortage of homes for sale suppressed California home sales in April, while the statewide median home price climbed above the $800,000 level for the first time in six months.” However, by May, an interest rate reprieve boosts California home sales to the highest level in eight months! That momentum carried on into June.

Comparing the first and second quarters of 2023, in Quarter 1 our market had an average of 2 months of inventory and saw 596 sales, but in Quarter 2 our market had an average of 1.6 months of inventory and saw 949 sales.

A graph showing the number of days to sell a house

Average Days on Market
Moving into the year, as more inventory became available the market started to heat up. You can see in the chart above the average days on the market dropped steadily. Even as inventory continued to come to market, it was quickly absorbed.

Comparing the first and second quarters of 2023, in Quarter 1 homes were on the market for an average of 33 days, but in Quarter 2 homes were on the market for an average of 21 days.

A graph showing a percentage of homes for sale

Sales Price to List Price Ratio
Right in line with the other market factors, as market activity increased so did “overbids” or the amount received when comparing the sales price to the list price.

Comparing the first and second quarters of 2023, in Quarter 1 the average overbid was 100.5%, but in Quarter 2 the average overbid was 103.4%.

A graph showing the price of a single family home

Above is the Median Sales Price for Single Family Homes for the period of January 2023 – June 2023.

For Quarter 1, we saw a steady rise in Median Sales Prices. During this quarter, the median sales price for single-family homes was $1,767,250. In Quarter 2, the trend continued with the median sales price for single-family homes at $1,790,000.

Our predictions for the remainder of 2023

While no one has a crystal ball, we do have some indicators as well as historical data to understand what might happen in the last half of 2023.

Interest Rates – Interest rates are a huge impact on the market. Most buyers have adjusted, and as long as they stay fairly steady, we believe that activity will continue to accelerate.

Inventory – While we do believe more inventory will become available by the end of July and early August, based on conversations with our peers, new listings will continue to trend in line with similar levels as last year, as high mortgage refinance rates discourage anyone from moving and selling. That will ensure home prices either rise or are resistant to any decline.

Effect on Buyers – Affordability for first-time buyers will continue a downward path as rates stay higher than in recent years and prices continue to edge up.

Pricing and Preparation – As always, the pricing strategy and how a property is prepared for the market will set the stage for how it’s positioned. If you’re considering selling your home, working with an agent who has a proven track record will be key to your success!

Overall, we expect to see a healthy market. While the market is absorbing homes priced at the $2.5M price point and below quickly, there is greater demand for higher-priced homes and even less available inventory. This limited inventory and high demand in all segments will skew more in the seller’s favor.

VIEW THE FULL JULY 2023 MARKET REPORT FOR SAN MATEO COUNTY

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The Fall Market Is Building Before It Begins

By Rumana Jabeen • August 20, 2026

Summer didn't bring enough new homes to meet buyer demand. Now, a growing pool of motivated buyers could be setting the stage for a very active fall across San Mateo County. Summer is winding down, and normally this is the point when I look back at the season and see a market that has taken a bit of a breather. This year, I see something different. We did get some new inventory over the summer, but not nearly enough to keep pace with demand, particularly for single-family homes. At the same time, buyers never really went away. Many are financially prepared, motivated, and actively searching, but they simply haven't found the inventory they need. That leaves us heading toward fall with an interesting combination: limited supply, persistent demand, and buyers who are becoming increasingly eager to make a move. I don't know yet exactly how the fall market will play out, but the ingredients are in place for a very active season. Summer Never Delivered the Inventory We Needed Summer usually gives buyers more choices. New listings arrive, activity spreads across more properties, and the market tends to settle into a somewhat more relaxed rhythm. That wasn't really the story this year. Single-family home inventory remained particularly tight across San Mateo County. When desirable homes did come to market, buyers often competed aggressively for them. Since May 1, 1,067 single-family homes have sold across San Mateo County. Of those, 798 sold above their asking price, and 125 sold for at least 120% of asking. That tells me something important. Demand isn't missing. In many cases, buyers simply haven't had enough homes to choose from. We're seeing an even more extreme version of that dynamic in San Francisco, where more than 140 homes sold for at least $1 million above asking during the first half of 2026. That is an extraordinary increase from only eight such sales during the same period last year. San Mateo County is its own market, and I would never suggest that San Francisco's results automatically translate to the Peninsula. But both markets demonstrate what can happen when motivated buyers compete for limited desirable inventory. Where Did All the Buyers Go? They are still here. I'm currently working with three highly motivated buyers who are financially prepared and ready to purchase. Their challenge isn't deciding whether they want to buy. It is finding the right single-family home to buy. And they are certainly not alone. Every buyer who spent May, June, July, and August waiting for the right property does not simply disappear when summer ends. Many carry that search into September and October with even greater motivation. That is the pent-up demand I am watching now. If fall brings a meaningful increase in new listings, we could see that demand spread across a healthier selection of homes. If inventory remains constrained, competition for the best properties could become even more pronounced. Either way, buyers should be preparing now rather than waiting for the fall market to officially "begin." Sellers, You Haven't Missed Your Window For homeowners, I think this is the most important takeaway from the summer. If you considered selling earlier this year but didn't, you haven't necessarily missed your opportunity. In fact, time may be on your side. There is a pool of buyers who have spent months searching without finding the right home. If your property matches what those buyers have been waiting for, coming to market this fall could put you in front of an unusually motivated audience. That does not mean every home will automatically receive multiple offers or sell substantially over asking. The fundamentals still matter. Your price has to match your product. Your home has to be positioned against the other choices buyers have across the Peninsula, not just the house down the street. Presentation, condition, location, and pricing strategy will determine whether buyers see your home as the opportunity they've been waiting for. A strong market can create opportunity, but strategy is what converts that opportunity into a successful sale. Advice for Buyers This Fall If you have been waiting for more inventory, use the remaining weeks of summer to get completely prepared. Make sure your financing is current, know your true comfort range, and be clear about which features are essential versus negotiable. More homes may come to market this fall, but the best single-family properties are unlikely to sit around waiting for you to decide. Patience has been necessary this summer. This fall may require decisiveness. Advice for Sellers This Fall If you have been wondering whether you waited too long to sell, let's change the question. Instead of asking whether you missed spring or summer, ask what your specific home would be competing against if it came to market this fall. That is something we can evaluate now. We can look at recent sales, current inventory, buyer activity, your home's condition, and where it fits within its price bracket. If the opportunity is there, the next few weeks give us time to prepare intentionally rather than rushing to market. Summer left us with fewer homes for sale, not fewer buyers. That distinction could define the fall market. The best time to start your strategy was yesterday. The next best time is today.